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The Heart Failure Society of America’s HF STATS 2026 report estimates that 7.7 million U.S. adults have heart failure, with the total projected to reach 11.4 million by 2050. It also reports rising age-adjusted mortality and worsening death rates among younger adults, while real-world data show only 18% of patients with reduced-ejection-fraction heart failure receive all four recommended drug classes.
The Heart Failure Society of America’s HF STATS 2026 report projects that heart failure will affect 11.4 million U.S. adults by 2050, up from an estimated 7.7 million now, and documents rising mortality. The report says age-adjusted heart failure mortality increased about 37% from 2010 to 2023, adding to concerns about a growing disease burden and limited use of recommended medicines.
The report estimates that 3% of U.S. adults, or 7.7 million people, currently have heart failure. It projects prevalence will rise to 3.2% (8.7 million) by 2030, 3.6% (10.3 million) by 2040 and 3.8% (11.4 million) by 2050. The authors attribute the expected increase partly to an aging population and rising levels of obesity, hypertension and other cardiometabolic risk factors.
Mortality is also moving upward. The report says age-adjusted heart failure death rates rose approximately 37% between 2010 and 2023, reversing more than a decade of prior progress, according to its authors. Separately, unadjusted mortality rates from 2001 to 2020 more than doubled among people ages 25 to 44, from 0.6 to 1.4 deaths per 100,000, and nearly doubled among those ages 45 to 64, from 6.4 to 12.5 per 100,000.
The report points to a treatment gap as one area for action. Real-world data cited in the report indicate that 18% of more than 3 million patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction receive all four guideline-directed medication classes: beta-blockers, renin-angiotensin system inhibitors, mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists and SGLT2 inhibitors. The report describes these therapies as underused; the figure concerns receipt of all four classes, not use of any one medicine.
Rising Deaths and Treatment Gaps
The projections imply that heart failure could affect a larger share of the population over coming decades, increasing the need for prevention, diagnosis and ongoing care. The mortality figures also show that the issue is not limited to an aging population: deaths have risen among younger and middle-aged adults, even as heart failure prevalence remains lower in those age groups.
The treatment finding highlights a gap between established evidence and everyday care for patients with reduced-ejection-fraction heart failure. The report and accompanying editorials argue that better initiation and long-term continuation of recommended medicines could help address that gap. The data do not establish how much of the national mortality trend is caused by underuse, nor do they quantify the effect of any single intervention.
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What the Report Measures
HF STATS is the Heart Failure Society of America’s annual assessment of heart failure trends. The 2026 report was published in the Journal of Cardiac Failure and brings together estimates of prevalence, mortality and treatment patterns. Its prevalence figures are estimates and future totals are projections, rather than counts of people already diagnosed.
The report’s authors, chaired by Eiran Gorodeski of University Hospitals Harrington Heart & Vascular Institute and Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine, describe a combination of rising mortality, younger age at onset, a growing at-risk population and gaps between evidence and practice. The source also notes that hospitalization rates are declining among adults 65 and older but rising among younger adults.
In an accompanying editorial, Thiru Chinnadurai and Tariq Ahmad of Yale School of Medicine called for practical measures to improve use of recommended treatment, including electronic health record decision support, multidisciplinary programs and simpler medication regimens. A separate editorial by Jerice Banola and Andrew Ambrosy of Kaiser Permanente San Francisco Medical Center emphasized earlier risk-factor screening and control.
“HF STATS 2026 reports a condition at a critical inflection point: rising mortality, younger age at onset, an expanding at-risk population, and widening gaps between evidence and practice.”
— HF STATS 2026 authors, chaired by Eiran Gorodeski
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Limits of the Available Data
The projections describe estimated future prevalence; they are not a guarantee that the number of cases will reach those levels. The supplied report summary does not provide the projection model’s assumptions or a range showing how estimates could change under different conditions.
The figures also do not establish why mortality has increased or how much individual factors, treatment access or changes in diagnosis and reporting contribute. The 18% medication statistic covers patients receiving all four drug classes in real-world data, but the supplied material does not give details on the data period, patient eligibility, reasons for nonuse or how treatment rates vary across regions and groups.
The report identifies racial and geographic disparities in care and concerns about a shrinking pipeline of advanced subspecialists, but the source material does not quantify those gaps. It also does not set out a specific national policy or implementation plan.
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Improving Prevention and Treatment
The report’s authors and accompanying editorialists call for stronger prevention, earlier recognition and more consistent delivery of proven therapies. Proposed steps include screening and controlling risk factors earlier in adulthood, using risk scores and natriuretic peptide testing for selected patients with stage B heart failure, and supporting clinicians with electronic decision tools and multidisciplinary treatment programs.
The report does not announce a formal deadline or a single next milestone. Progress will depend on whether health systems, clinicians, payers, policymakers and communities act on the recommendations, and on future data showing whether prevalence, mortality and treatment use change. The authors also call for continued research and attention to disparities in access and care.
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Key Questions
How many U.S. adults are estimated to have heart failure?
The HF STATS 2026 report estimates 7.7 million adults, or about 3% of the U.S. adult population, have heart failure.
How many people could have heart failure by 2050?
The report projects 11.4 million U.S. adults, or 3.8% of adults, by 2050. That is a projection, not a confirmed future count.
What does the report say about heart failure mortality?
It reports that age-adjusted mortality rates increased by approximately 37% from 2010 to 2023. It also reports that unadjusted rates more than doubled among adults ages 25 to 44 between 2001 and 2020.
What treatment gap does the report identify?
Real-world data cited by the report indicate that 18% of more than 3 million patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction received all four guideline-directed medication classes. The statistic does not mean that only 18% received any heart failure medicine.
They call for stronger prevention and earlier recognition, improved use and continuation of recommended therapies, attention to care disparities and continued research. Editorialists also suggest tools such as electronic health record decision support and multidisciplinary treatment programs.
Source: rss
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